The general election was finally announced by Gordon Brown on Tuesday.
On Thursday May 6th, the people of Mid Sussex will take to the polls as our Member of Parliament for the next term will be decided.
Will Nicholas Soames retain his seat or will Serena Tierney spring a surprise and win it for the Liberal Democrats? As for Labour's David Boot, he has as much chance of victory as what Burgess Hill does at winning a cleanest public toilet award.
In 2005, Nicholas Soames polled 23,765 to Tierney's 17,875. Have opinions changed over the last 5 years?
Soames certainly isn't the most active of MP's.
Since 2005 he's only voted on 682 out of 1285 issues, that's a voting percentage of 53.1%.
The Public Whip's voting record of Nicholas Soames MP.
Big Nic also has three paid roles outside of being an MP, more details here..
They Work For You.com's Nicholas Soames Profile
As the data seems to indicate, Soames could be a much harder working MP for Mid Sussex. Clearly he has some nice paying roles outside of Parliament, so why doesn't he stand down and concentrate on them and let Mid Sussex constituents have an MP that will really work hard for them, someone that doesn't take getting re elected for granted. This of course will not happen.
Is Serena Tierney a good enough challenger to pose Nicholas Soames a real threat?
She certainly appears in the media enough, championing local issues far more than big Nic, whilst she's getting her picture in the local papers, Nic isn't courting the media as much as he once did, perhaps he's too busy with his other jobs, or is it because Serena makes a better picture?
What could go against Serena and the Lib Dems is that nationally, many of the general public are sick of Gordon Brown. To ensure they get a new prime minister, people will vote Conservative. Interestingly though, David Cameron and co really have failed to put the boot in when Brown was down over the past six months. Labour are making enough noise to suggest that they are the best party to help the country recover from the economic crisis. (Hollow claims as it's going to get much much worse yet) If Brown can improve public perception of himself over the next month, then this could benefit Serena Tierney as there may be less urgency among voters to get Cameron in.
It will come down to those that vote with their local politician in mind, and those that vote to see a specific party and prime minister in power.
How do you think it will go locally and nationally?